TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the VfB Stuttgart vs. Celtic FC match scheduled for February 26, 2026, a professional Europa League soccer game. Markets span three outcome categories (Stuttgart win, draw, Celtic win) on Polymarket, and four margin-of-victory thresholds on Kalshi. The core resolution hinges on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi diverge on cancellation protocol. Polymarket's draw market resolves YES if canceled; win markets resolve NO. Kalshi margin-of-victory markets lack explicit cancellation guidance, creating settlement ambiguity.Hero Tip:
Traders should seek clarification from Kalshi on whether canceled games with no make-up resolve NO (aligning with Polymarket win markets) or remain OPEN. The Polymarket draw market's YES-on-cancellation rule is asymmetric and may present arbitrage or hedge opportunities if exploited before game day.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three binary outcome markets (Stuttgart win, draw, Celtic win). Postponement keeps markets open; cancellation with no make-up resolves draw to YES and win markets to NO. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "Yes"' (draw market only).Kalshi:
Four margin-of-victory markets (Celtic >2.5 goals, Stuttgart >1.5 goals, Celtic >1.5 goals, Stuttgart >2.5 goals). No explicit cancellation or postponement clause provided. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. Key Quote: 'If [team] wins by more than [X] goals in the Celtic at Stuttgart professional Europa League soccer game originally scheduled for Feb 26, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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