TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market refers to the Valorant match between JD Gaming and FunPlus Phoenix in the VCT China Group Alpha, initially scheduled for April 1 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming win the match against FunPlus Phoenix. This market will resolve to "FunPlus Phoenix" if FunPlus Phoenix win the match against JD Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket diverge on the scope of resolution. Kalshi's market resolves YES if either team wins Map 2, making it a tautology that always resolves YES. Polymarket offers granular markets for Map 1 winner, Map 2 winner, match winner, handicap, and total maps, each with specific resolution logic tied to individual outcomes.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's Map 2 market is logically flawed—it resolves YES regardless of which team wins, so avoid it as a predictive instrument. Use Polymarket's individual markets (Map 1 Winner, Map 2 Winner, Match Winner, Handicap, Total Maps) for meaningful price discovery and hedging.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi offers only one market with a tautological resolution rule. The market states 'If FunPlus Phoenix wins map 2... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If JD Gaming wins map 2... then the market resolves to Yes.' This means the market resolves YES regardless of outcome, making it non-predictive. No resolution source, timing, or edge-case handling is specified.Polymarket:
Aligned with standard prediction market design: Polymarket offers five distinct markets (Map 1 Winner, Map 2 Winner, Match Winner, Handicap, Total Maps) each with binary or categorical outcomes tied to specific team performance or match structure. All markets reference vlr.gg as primary source with 2-hour fallback to credible consensus, include cancellation/delay rules (7-day threshold), and handle incomplete matches or forfeits with 50-50 resolution or outcome-based logic as appropriate. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to JD Gaming if JD Gaming win Map 2 against FunPlus Phoenix. This market will resolve to FunPlus Phoenix if FunPlus Phoenix win Map 2 against FunPlus Phoenix.'
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