TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
FURIA Esports and NRG compete in a best-of-three Valorant match during VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega, scheduled for April 12, 2024 at 8:00 PM ET. The event group encompasses multiple derivative markets tracking match outcome, map count, map handicap, and individual map winners. All markets are contingent on match completion and official result publication via vlr.gg.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different market structures and resolution logic. Kalshi resolves on whether either team wins Map 2 (a tautology that always resolves YES if the match is completed), while Polymarket offers distinct markets for match winner, individual map winners, games total, and map handicaps with standard sports betting logic.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's Map 2 market is logically flawed—it resolves YES regardless of which team wins Map 2, making it unsuitable for directional betting. Focus trading activity on Polymarket's suite of markets, which offer genuine differentiation: match winner, map-by-map outcomes, games total (Over/Under 2.5), and handicap bets. If you hold Kalshi positions, recognize that the market will almost certainly resolve YES (barring match cancellation or extreme delays), so treat it as a near-certain payout rather than a competitive bet.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi offers only one market structure—a binary on whether Map 2 is won by either NRG or FURIA Esports. The market resolves YES if 'NRG wins map 2' OR 'FURIA Esports wins map 2', which is a logical tautology: one of these outcomes must occur if the match reaches Map 2. This creates a market that effectively resolves YES whenever the match is completed and reaches Map 2, with NO resolution only if the match is canceled, forfeited before Map 2, or delayed beyond 7 days. The resolution source is not explicitly stated.Polymarket:
Aligned with standard sports betting conventions: Polymarket offers five distinct markets—(1) Games Total Over/Under 2.5 (resolves Over if 3+ maps played, Under if fewer than 3), (2) Match Winner (FURIA Esports or NRG), (3) Map 1 Winner, (4) Map 2 Winner, and (5) two Map Handicap variants. Each market has independent resolution criteria tied to specific outcomes. All markets explicitly reference vlr.gg as the primary resolution source with a 2-hour publication window before consensus reporting is used. Forfeits, disqualifications, and walkovers are counted toward totals and handicaps if the match is completed, but incomplete matches or pre-match forfeits resolve to 50-50.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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