TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market refers to the Valorant Round 3 match between Azure Dragon Gaming and Shopify Rebellion Black in the VCL North America: Stage 2 Group Stage, initially scheduled for March 31 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Azure Dragon Gaming" if Azure Dragon Gaming win the match against Shopify Rebellion Black. This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion Black" if Shopify Rebellion Black win the match against Azure Dragon Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market resolves YES for ANY outcome (either team winning), making it logically incoherent and fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket's five markets all resolve based on specific match outcomes (winner, individual map winners, map count, handicaps) with consistent logic. Kalshi's market cannot coexist with Polymarket's match-outcome markets.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's market. It is logically broken: both 'Shopify Rebellion wins' and 'Azure Dragon Gaming wins' resolve to YES, meaning the market always resolves YES regardless of outcome. This violates basic market logic. All meaningful trading should occur on Polymarket's five markets, which have coherent, outcome-dependent resolution criteria.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: This market contains a critical logical flaw. Both resolution conditions state the market resolves to Yes: 'If Shopify Rebellion wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Azure Dragon Gaming wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This means the market resolves YES for every possible outcome, making it unresolvable and unsuitable for trading. No other platform in this group exhibits this contradiction.Polymarket:
Aligned with itself (sole coherent platform): Polymarket offers five distinct, outcome-dependent markets: Match Winner (resolves to the team that wins the BO3), Map 1 Winner, Map 2 Winner, Games Total O/U 2.5 (resolves Over if 3+ maps played, Under if fewer), and two Map Handicap markets. Each resolves based on specific match results with clear 50-50 fallback rules for cancellations, delays beyond 7 days, incomplete matches, or forfeits. All use vlr.gg as primary source with credible reporting consensus as backup within 2 hours of conclusion.
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