TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the La Liga match between Valencia CF (home) and CA Osasuna scheduled for March 1, 2026. Kalshi offers four binary markets on goal-differential thresholds (>1.5 and >2.5 goals for each team), while Polymarket offers three markets on match outcome (Valencia win, draw, Osasuna win). Both platforms resolve based on 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi markets settle on goal-differential thresholds (>1.5 or >2.5 goals for either team), while Polymarket markets settle on binary match outcome (win/draw/loss). These represent different settlement value types and are not directly comparable or hedgeable against each other.Hero Tip:
Understand the market type before trading. Kalshi requires a specific goal margin; Polymarket requires only the final result. A 2-1 Valencia win resolves YES on Polymarket but NO on Kalshi's >2.5 threshold. These are complementary but distinct markets, not substitutes.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Four binary markets on goal-differential thresholds. Resolves YES if Valencia wins by >2.5 goals, Valencia wins by >1.5 goals, Osasuna wins by >2.5 goals, or Osasuna wins by >1.5 goals. Settlement value is the final goal margin, not the match outcome alone.Polymarket:
Three outcome-classification markets: Valencia win, draw, Osasuna win. Resolves YES/NO based on match result only (win/draw/loss), regardless of goal margin. Settlement value is the match classification, not the margin of victory.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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