TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Europe World Cup Qualifiers game, scheduled for Thursday, March 26, 2026 between Ukraine and Sweden.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market rules are logically contradictory and unresolvable. Kalshi states that YES resolves if Ukraine wins OR Sweden wins OR a tie occurs—covering all possible outcomes—making it impossible for the market to ever resolve NO. Polymarket provides three separate, mutually exclusive markets (Ukraine win, Sweden win, draw) with standard binary logic, allowing exactly one to resolve YES based on the actual match result.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's market in this group—it is fundamentally broken and will resolve YES regardless of the match outcome, violating basic market logic. Trade only Polymarket's three markets (Ukraine win, Sweden win, draw), which follow standard prediction market structure and will resolve based on the actual result.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi's three rules state that YES resolves if 'Ukraine wins' OR 'Sweden wins' OR 'Tie wins'—covering every possible outcome. This creates a logical contradiction where the market cannot resolve NO under any realistic scenario, making the market unresolvable and unsuitable for trading.Polymarket:
Aligned with standard prediction market logic: Polymarket offers three separate binary markets—'Will Ukraine win', 'Will Sweden win', 'Will the game end in a draw'—each resolving YES or NO based on the actual match outcome within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Exactly one market will resolve YES depending on the result.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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