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$134.1b

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$1,423,222,590

402,751

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30,217

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Kalshi:

61%

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UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$2,640,168

Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson

 - Polymarket

Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 26, 2026

Closed: Apr 25, 11:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,015,395
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Raoni Barcelos

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$851,997
N/A
N/A
$478,664
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Barcelos to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,169
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$20,497
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,349
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$487
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$166
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Montel Jackson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$746,751
N/A
N/A
$519,842
Settled
No
polymarket

Jackson to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$880
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,298
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$180
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to "Raoni Barcelos" if Raoni Barcelos is officially declared the winner of the fight against Montel Jackson at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Montel Jackson" if Montel Jackson is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market resolves YES for ANY outcome (either fighter wins), making it logically incoherent and fundamentally unresolvable as a binary contract. Polymarket markets are properly structured with mutually exclusive outcomes.Hero tip: Avoid the Kalshi market entirely—it will resolve YES regardless of fight outcome, making it worthless as a prediction instrument. Trade only on Polymarket's properly structured markets (moneyline, method, rounds).

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Moneyline market resolves YES to Raoni Barcelos if he wins, YES to Montel Jackson if he wins, with 50-50 for draw/no-contest/postponement beyond May 9, 2026. Each outcome is mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Raoni Barcelos if Raoni Barcelos is officially declared the winner... It will resolve to Montel Jackson if Montel Jackson is officially declared the winner.'
  • Kalshi: Market resolves YES if Raoni Barcelos wins OR if Montel Jackson wins—meaning YES is guaranteed regardless of which fighter prevails. This creates a logical contradiction where the market cannot resolve NO under any normal fight outcome. Quote: 'If Raoni Barcelos wins the Jackson vs Barcelos professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Montel Jackson wins the Jackson vs Barcelos professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.