TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market will resolve to "Movsar Evloev" if Movsar Evloev is officially declared the winner of the fight against Lerone Murphy at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy, scheduled for March 21, 2026. It will resolve to "Lerone Murphy" if Lerone Murphy is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution scopes. Kalshi resolves if EITHER fighter wins (making both YES outcomes mutually exclusive and logically impossible), while Polymarket resolves on specific fight outcomes (method of victory, duration, decision type). Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory and unresolvable.Hero Tip:
Avoid Kalshi markets in this group entirely — they contain a logical contradiction where both 'Lerone Murphy wins' and 'Movsar Evloev wins' are marked to resolve YES, which is impossible. Trade only on Polymarket markets, which use standard UFC resolution logic (KO/TKO, submission, decision, rounds over/under, distance).Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi's two markets both resolve YES regardless of which fighter wins. Market 1 states 'If Lerone Murphy wins...then the market resolves to Yes' AND Market 2 states 'If Movsar Evloev wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility where the same event triggers YES on both mutually exclusive outcomes, making the market unresolvable and internally contradictory.Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket uses standard UFC resolution logic across 9 distinct markets covering specific outcomes: winner by KO/TKO (Murphy or Evloev), submission, decision/distance, and round duration thresholds (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 rounds). Each market resolves YES/NO based on the actual fight result and method, with 50-50 resolution for cancellation/postponement beyond April 4, 2026. Example: 'Will Lerone Murphy win by KO or TKO?' resolves YES only if Murphy defeats Evloev by KO/TKO, otherwise NO.
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