TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$4,844,619

Movsar Evloev

 - Kalshi

Movsar Evloev - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 22, 2026

Closed: Mar 21, 10:40 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Movsar Evloev

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,742,604
N/A
N/A
$986,696
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,428,373
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 4.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$218,293
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,637
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,366
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$105
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$57
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 3.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$51
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Lerone Murphy

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,420,462
N/A
N/A
$965,519
Settled
No
polymarket

Murphy to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,464
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Evloev to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,372
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,812
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,022
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This market will resolve to "Movsar Evloev" if Movsar Evloev is officially declared the winner of the fight against Lerone Murphy at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy, scheduled for March 21, 2026. It will resolve to "Lerone Murphy" if Lerone Murphy is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution scopes. Kalshi resolves if EITHER fighter wins (making both YES outcomes mutually exclusive and logically impossible), while Polymarket resolves on specific fight outcomes (method of victory, duration, decision type). Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory and unresolvable.Hero tip: Avoid Kalshi markets in this group entirely — they contain a logical contradiction where both 'Lerone Murphy wins' and 'Movsar Evloev wins' are marked to resolve YES, which is impossible. Trade only on Polymarket markets, which use standard UFC resolution logic (KO/TKO, submission, decision, rounds over/under, distance).

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's two markets both resolve YES regardless of which fighter wins. Market 1 states 'If Lerone Murphy wins...then the market resolves to Yes' AND Market 2 states 'If Movsar Evloev wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility where the same event triggers YES on both mutually exclusive outcomes, making the market unresolvable and internally contradictory.
  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket uses standard UFC resolution logic across 9 distinct markets covering specific outcomes: winner by KO/TKO (Murphy or Evloev), submission, decision/distance, and round duration thresholds (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 rounds). Each market resolves YES/NO based on the actual fight result and method, with 50-50 resolution for cancellation/postponement beyond April 4, 2026. Example: 'Will Lerone Murphy win by KO or TKO?' resolves YES only if Murphy defeats Evloev by KO/TKO, otherwise NO.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.