TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a women's bantamweight preliminary bout between Montserrat Rendon and Bia Mesquita scheduled for UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos on March 14, 2026. Markets span fight outcome, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission), round duration thresholds, and distance completion, with resolution tied to official UFC records.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi provides binary winner resolution (either fighter wins = Yes) with no method or edge-case specification, while Polymarket offers granular method-based markets (KO/TKO, submission, distance) with explicit 50-50 handling for no-contests, cancellations, and postponements beyond March 28, 2026. The platforms serve different resolution purposes and cannot be directly cross-referenced.Hero Tip:
Use Kalshi as a simple winner oracle. For method-specific bets (KO, submission, distance), rely exclusively on Polymarket's detailed rules. If the fight is canceled, postponed beyond March 28, 2026, or ruled no-contest, Polymarket markets resolve 50-50; Kalshi's behavior in these scenarios is undefined and should be clarified with the platform before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Granular method-based resolution across 6 distinct markets: (1) Rendon KO/TKO win, (2) Mesquita KO/TKO win, (3) Any KO/TKO, (4) Submission, (5) Fight outcome (winner identity), (6) Distance completion. All include explicit 50-50 resolution for no-contest, cancellation, or postponement beyond March 28, 2026. Key Quote: 'If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 28, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'Kalshi:
Binary outcome markets: (1) Rendon wins = Yes, (2) Mesquita wins = Yes. No method distinction, no edge-case handling documented. Both markets resolve Yes if their respective fighter is declared the winner; no specification for draws, no-contests, or postponements. Key Quote: 'If Montserrat Rendon wins the Mesquita vs Rendon professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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