TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Michael Chiesa and Niko Price will compete in a welterweight bout at UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer on March 28, 2026. Markets track the fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration (round thresholds), and whether the bout reaches a full decision. All resolution depends on official UFC scoring and bout status.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different event scopes. Kalshi resolves on a simple binary of whether either fighter wins the Chiesa vs Price fight, while Polymarket offers granular markets on specific fight outcomes (distance, method, rounds). Kalshi's markets lack method-of-victory and round-duration specifications that Polymarket provides.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi's Chiesa vs Price market, you are betting only on who wins, with no method-of-victory or duration qualifier. On Polymarket, each market is outcome-specific (KO/TKO, submission, distance, round thresholds). Do not assume a Kalshi YES bet corresponds to any single Polymarket outcome — a Kalshi YES resolves the same way regardless of how the fight ends, but Polymarket markets depend on the specific finish.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi offers only a binary winner market with no method-of-victory or round-duration qualifiers. The market resolves YES if either Michael Chiesa or Niko Price wins, with no distinction between KO, submission, or decision. Quote: 'If Michael Chiesa wins the Chiesa vs Price professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Niko Price wins the Chiesa vs Price professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Aligned with granular outcome specification: Polymarket provides eight separate markets covering fight distance (goes the distance), method of victory (KO/TKO by either fighter, submission), round thresholds (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds), and overall winner. Each market has distinct resolution criteria tied to specific fight outcomes. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the fight between Michael Chiesa and Niko Price at UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer, scheduled for March 28, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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