TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a UFC lightweight preliminary bout between Manoel Sousa and Bolaji Oki scheduled for March 14, 2026, at UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos. Markets span fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), round duration thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds), and whether the fight goes the distance.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's winner market lacks explicit adverse outcome clauses (draw, no-contest, cancellation), while Polymarket specifies 50-50 resolution for these scenarios. This creates ambiguity in Kalshi's resolution path.Hero Tip:
Treat Kalshi's winner market as resolving No on draw/no-contest/cancellation unless Kalshi documentation explicitly states otherwise. Polymarket offers clearer adverse-outcome protection via 50-50 resolution. Cross-reference official UFC sources (ufc.com) on fight status before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Head-to-head winner market (Sousa vs. Oki) resolves to the declared winner or 50-50 on draw, technical draw, no-contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 28, 2026. All method-of-victory and round-duration markets also include explicit 50-50 clauses for adverse outcomes.Kalshi:
Winner market resolves Yes if either Bolaji Oki or Manoel Sousa wins; no explicit resolution language for draws, no-contests, cancellations, or postponements. Ambiguity on adverse outcomes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.15.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.