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$1,423,222,590

402,751

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2,632

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5

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UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Bolaji Oki (Lightweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Bolaji Oki (Lightweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$508,711

Manoel Sousa vs. Bolaji Oki

 - Polymarket

Manoel Sousa vs. Bolaji Oki - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 15, 2026

Closed: Mar 14, 11:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Manoel Sousa vs. Bolaji Oki

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$442,668
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Manoel Sousa

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$25,025
N/A
N/A
$22,339
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,056
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$931
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Sousa to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$918
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$733
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$507
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Bolaji Oki

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32,663
N/A
N/A
$28,396
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,252
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Oki to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$995
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$963
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers a UFC lightweight preliminary bout between Manoel Sousa and Bolaji Oki scheduled for March 14, 2026, at UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos. Markets span fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), round duration thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds), and whether the fight goes the distance.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's winner market lacks explicit adverse outcome clauses (draw, no-contest, cancellation), while Polymarket specifies 50-50 resolution for these scenarios. This creates ambiguity in Kalshi's resolution path.Hero tip: Treat Kalshi's winner market as resolving No on draw/no-contest/cancellation unless Kalshi documentation explicitly states otherwise. Polymarket offers clearer adverse-outcome protection via 50-50 resolution. Cross-reference official UFC sources (ufc.com) on fight status before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Head-to-head winner market (Sousa vs. Oki) resolves to the declared winner or 50-50 on draw, technical draw, no-contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 28, 2026. All method-of-victory and round-duration markets also include explicit 50-50 clauses for adverse outcomes.
  • Kalshi: Winner market resolves Yes if either Bolaji Oki or Manoel Sousa wins; no explicit resolution language for draws, no-contests, cancellations, or postponements. Ambiguity on adverse outcomes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.