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404,175

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UFC Fight Night: Harry Hardwick vs. Marwan Rahiki (Featherweight, Main Card)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Harry Hardwick vs. Marwan Rahiki (Featherweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$504,673

Marwan Rahiki

 - Kalshi

Marwan Rahiki - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 15, 2026

Closed: Mar 15, 1:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Marwan Rahiki

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$42,358
N/A
N/A
$41,309
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,270
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Rahiki to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$726
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$507
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$136
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Harry Hardwick vs. Marwan Rahiki

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$418,910
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Harry Hardwick

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38,765
N/A
N/A
$35,339
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$946
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Hardwick to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$533
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$425
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$96
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers multiple prediction markets on the UFC Fight Night main card matchup between Harry Hardwick and Marwan Rahiki (Featherweight division), scheduled for March 14, 2026. Markets span fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), and fight duration (round thresholds at 0.5, 1.5, and 2.5 rounds).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi employs a binary YES/YES structure that collapses both fighter outcomes into single YES resolutions, while Polymarket maintains categorical outcomes (Hardwick, Rahiki, 50-50). Kalshi lacks explicit edge-case definitions for draws, technical decisions, and postponements; Polymarket provides comprehensive edge-case handling.Hero tip: Kalshi's structure suggests a data entry error or two separate markets mislabeled as one group. Polymarket is the authoritative source for categorical clarity. If trading Kalshi, confirm with the platform whether both markets can resolve YES or if they are mutually exclusive. Always reference Polymarket's 50-50 rules for draws, technical decisions, and postponements beyond March 28, 2026.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary structure: 'If Harry Hardwick wins...then YES' and 'If Marwan Rahiki wins...then YES'. No explicit handling of draws, technical decisions, or postponements. Logical ambiguity: both conditions cannot be true simultaneously, yet both resolve to YES.
  • Polymarket: Categorical outcomes: Resolves to 'Harry Hardwick', 'Marwan Rahiki', or '50-50' (for draw, technical decision, no contest, cancellation, or postponement beyond March 28, 2026). Explicit timing rules for round thresholds (exact threshold = 50-50). Unified cancellation logic across all markets.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.