TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers multiple prediction markets on the UFC Fight Night main card matchup between Harry Hardwick and Marwan Rahiki (Featherweight division), scheduled for March 14, 2026. Markets span fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), and fight duration (round thresholds at 0.5, 1.5, and 2.5 rounds).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi employs a binary YES/YES structure that collapses both fighter outcomes into single YES resolutions, while Polymarket maintains categorical outcomes (Hardwick, Rahiki, 50-50). Kalshi lacks explicit edge-case definitions for draws, technical decisions, and postponements; Polymarket provides comprehensive edge-case handling.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's structure suggests a data entry error or two separate markets mislabeled as one group. Polymarket is the authoritative source for categorical clarity. If trading Kalshi, confirm with the platform whether both markets can resolve YES or if they are mutually exclusive. Always reference Polymarket's 50-50 rules for draws, technical decisions, and postponements beyond March 28, 2026.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Binary structure: 'If Harry Hardwick wins...then YES' and 'If Marwan Rahiki wins...then YES'. No explicit handling of draws, technical decisions, or postponements. Logical ambiguity: both conditions cannot be true simultaneously, yet both resolve to YES.Polymarket:
Categorical outcomes: Resolves to 'Harry Hardwick', 'Marwan Rahiki', or '50-50' (for draw, technical decision, no contest, cancellation, or postponement beyond March 28, 2026). Explicit timing rules for round thresholds (exact threshold = 50-50). Unified cancellation logic across all markets.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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