TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a UFC Fight Night main card matchup between Gillian Robertson and Amanda Lemos in the women's strawweight division, scheduled for March 14, 2026. Markets span fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, distance), and round duration thresholds. Resolution depends on official UFC fight results and timing.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market structure is tautological (Yes if either fighter wins) while Polymarket offers granular winner and method differentiation. The platforms measure different aspects of the same event.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's binary structure makes it unsuitable for directional fighter bets. Use it only to hedge against event cancellation. All meaningful fight outcome trading should occur on Polymarket's winner, KO/TKO, submission, and distance markets. Coordinate resolution timing: both platforms use March 28, 2026 as the cancellation cutoff.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Eight distinct markets covering winner (Robertson vs Lemos vs 50-50), method (KO/TKO by either fighter, submission, distance), and round duration (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds). Each resolves independently based on official UFC outcome. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Gillian Robertson if Gillian Robertson is officially declared the winner... If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 28, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'Kalshi:
Single binary market: 'If Amanda Lemos wins... then resolves to Yes. If Gillian Robertson wins... then resolves to Yes.' No differentiation by method, no distance markets, no explicit edge case handling. Logically resolves Yes in all competitive outcomes regardless of winner or method.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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