TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the UFC Fight Night bantamweight bout between Ethyn Ewing and Rafael Estevam, scheduled for April 4, 2026. Markets span fight outcome (moneyline), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration (rounds), and distance completion. All markets reference official UFC determination as the authoritative resolution source.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution scopes. Polymarket's moneyline market (Question 10) resolves to '50-50' if the fight ends in a draw, technical draw, no contest, or is canceled/postponed beyond April 18, 2026. Kalshi's moneyline market resolves to 'Yes' if either fighter wins, with no explicit handling of draws or cancellations, creating a logical gap where Kalshi may resolve YES while Polymarket resolves 50-50 for identical outcomes.Hero Tip:
If you hold positions on both platforms' moneyline markets and the fight ends in a draw or is postponed beyond April 18, 2026, Polymarket will resolve 50-50 (partial loss) while Kalshi's resolution is undefined—potentially leaving you with unhedged exposure. Clarify Kalshi's draw/cancellation rules before the event date or reduce cross-platform exposure.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier on scope and edge-case handling: Polymarket's moneyline market (Question 10) explicitly resolves to '50-50' for draws, technical draws, no contests, or cancellations/postponements beyond April 18, 2026. Quote: 'If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 18, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.' This creates a three-outcome resolution space (Ewing wins, Estevam wins, or 50-50).Kalshi:
Outlier on scope and edge-case handling: Kalshi's moneyline market provides only binary resolution logic: 'If Ethyn Ewing wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Rafael Estevam wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' No explicit resolution path is defined for draws, no contests, or cancellations, leaving the outcome undefined for these scenarios and creating potential settlement ambiguity.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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