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UFC Fight Night: Antonio Trocoli vs. Mantas Kondratavicius (Middleweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Antonio Trocoli vs. Mantas Kondratavicius (Middleweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$693,867

Mantas Kondratavicius

 - Kalshi

Mantas Kondratavicius - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 21, 2026

Closed: Mar 21, 7:20 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Mantas Kondratavicius

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$168,313
N/A
N/A
$129,406
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,892
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$307
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$272
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$137
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Antonio Trocoli

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$307,529
N/A
N/A
$256,308
Settled
No
polymarket

Antonio Trocoli vs. Mantas Kondratavicius

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$213,750
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kondratavicius to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$426
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$188
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Trocoli to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to "Antonio Trocoli" if Antonio Trocoli is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mantas Kondratavicius at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy, scheduled for March 21, 2026. It will resolve to "Mantas Kondratavicius" if Mantas Kondratavicius is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi resolves on any fight outcome (either fighter winning), while Polymarket offers multiple outcome-specific markets (KO/TKO, submission, rounds, distance) with distinct resolution criteria. Kalshi's binary winner-takes-all approach diverges fundamentally from Polymarket's granular method-of-victory and fight-duration markets.Hero tip: If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting simply on who wins the fight. On Polymarket, you can bet on specific fight outcomes (KO/TKO, submission, rounds, going the distance). Your Kalshi YES resolves if either fighter wins; your Polymarket bets depend on HOW the fight ends. Do not assume Kalshi YES correlates 1:1 with any single Polymarket market—a Kalshi YES could resolve alongside Polymarket NO on method-specific markets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi offers only a binary winner market with no method-of-victory or duration specificity. Both Kalshi markets (Mantas wins OR Antonio wins) resolve YES if either fighter is declared the official winner, with no distinction for KO/TKO, submission, or round duration. Key quote: 'If Mantas Kondratavicius wins the Kondratavicius vs Trocoli professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Antonio Trocoli wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket provides eight granular outcome markets covering method of victory (KO/TKO, submission), fight duration (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds), and distance completion. Each market has its own resolution criteria independent of the others. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the fight...ends by KO or TKO' and 'Each market will resolve to Over if the fight...lasts beyond the listed round threshold.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.