TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market will resolve to "Antonio Trocoli" if Antonio Trocoli is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mantas Kondratavicius at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy, scheduled for March 21, 2026. It will resolve to "Mantas Kondratavicius" if Mantas Kondratavicius is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves on any fight outcome (either fighter winning), while Polymarket offers multiple outcome-specific markets (KO/TKO, submission, rounds, distance) with distinct resolution criteria. Kalshi's binary winner-takes-all approach diverges fundamentally from Polymarket's granular method-of-victory and fight-duration markets.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting simply on who wins the fight. On Polymarket, you can bet on specific fight outcomes (KO/TKO, submission, rounds, going the distance). Your Kalshi YES resolves if either fighter wins; your Polymarket bets depend on HOW the fight ends. Do not assume Kalshi YES correlates 1:1 with any single Polymarket market—a Kalshi YES could resolve alongside Polymarket NO on method-specific markets.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi offers only a binary winner market with no method-of-victory or duration specificity. Both Kalshi markets (Mantas wins OR Antonio wins) resolve YES if either fighter is declared the official winner, with no distinction for KO/TKO, submission, or round duration. Key quote: 'If Mantas Kondratavicius wins the Kondratavicius vs Trocoli professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Antonio Trocoli wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket provides eight granular outcome markets covering method of victory (KO/TKO, submission), fight duration (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds), and distance completion. Each market has its own resolution criteria independent of the others. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the fight...ends by KO or TKO' and 'Each market will resolve to Over if the fight...lasts beyond the listed round threshold.'
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