TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market will resolve to "Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady" if Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady is officially declared the winner of the fight against Shem Rock at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy, scheduled for March 21, 2026. It will resolve to "Shem Rock" if Shem Rock is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket provides comprehensive, detailed resolution rules across 8 distinct markets with specific thresholds, timing conditions, and edge-case handling (including 50-50 splits for exact threshold hits, cancellations, and no-contests). Kalshi provides only a single binary market with minimal rules that lacks any specification of how to handle draws, disqualifications, no-contests, cancellations, or postponements, making it fundamentally unresolvable under many realistic fight outcomes.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you face critical ambiguity: the market does not specify what happens if the fight ends in a draw, is ruled a no-contest, is canceled, or is postponed. Polymarket's 8 markets (O/U rounds, KO/TKO outcomes, winner, distance) provide explicit 50-50 resolution for these scenarios. Avoid Kalshi unless you can confirm with the platform how it will handle non-decisive outcomes.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Polymarket offers 8 separate markets with granular resolution rules. Each market specifies exact thresholds (e.g., 'Over 1.5 Rounds resolves YES if fight continues past 2:30 of Round 2'), tie-breaking logic ('If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve 50-50'), and comprehensive edge cases ('If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 4, 2026, all options will resolve 50-50'). Winner market resolves to named fighter or 50-50 if draw/no-contest/canceled/postponed. KO/TKO markets explicitly exclude draws and disqualifications (resolve NO). Distance market requires full rounds completed and judge scorecards. Submission market similarly excludes draws and disqualifications.Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi provides a single binary market ('If Shem Rock wins... then YES. If Abdul Kareem Alselwady wins... then Yes.') with no resolution rules, no edge-case handling, no specification of what constitutes a 'win', and no guidance on draws, disqualifications, no-contests, cancellations, or postponements. The market is logically incomplete: it does not state what happens if the fight is ruled a draw, no-contest, or canceled, nor does it define the resolution source or timing.
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