TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
UFC 327 features a light heavyweight bout between Paulo Costa and Azamat Murzakanov scheduled for April 11, 2026, as part of the Procházka vs. Ulberg event card. Markets span winner determination, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration (rounds), and distance completion. Official UFC records serve as the authoritative resolution source across all platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves YES for any fight outcome (submission, decision, KO/TKO, or draw), while Polymarket uses outcome-specific markets that each resolve independently based on the fight result. Kalshi's market is a catch-all 'fight happens' market, whereas Polymarket's markets segment by finish type and winner.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi's market, it resolves YES unless the fight is canceled or postponed beyond April 25, 2026. On Polymarket, each market (winner, submission, KO/TKO, distance) resolves independently based on the actual fight outcome. Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket outcomes will align — they measure different things.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi operates a single binary market that resolves YES for any fight result (submission by either fighter, decision by either fighter, KO/TKO/DQ by either fighter, or draw). The market only resolves NO if the fight does not occur. Key quote: 'If Azamat Murzakanov wins by Submission... then the market resolves to Yes' through 'If Paulo Henrique Costa wins by KO/TKO/DQ... then the market resolves to Yes' — all conditions resolve YES.Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers multiple independent outcome-specific markets: (1) winner market (Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov, resolves 50-50 on draw/no-contest), (2) submission market (Yes if submission, No otherwise), (3) KO/TKO market (Yes if KO/TKO, No otherwise), (4) Paulo Costa KO/TKO market (Yes only if Costa wins by KO/TKO), (5) Azamat KO/TKO market (Yes only if Azamat wins by KO/TKO), (6) distance market (Yes if fight goes full rounds, No if stopped early). Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the fight... ends by submission' and separately 'This market will resolve to Yes if the fight... ends by KO or TKO' — each market is independent.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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