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UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$2,208,476

Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov

 - Polymarket

Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 12, 2026

Closed: Apr 11, 11:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,564,115
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Paulo Henrique Costa by KO/TKO/DQ

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$86,175
N/A
N/A
$77,163
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Costa to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,329
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,967
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$477
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$473
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO/DQ

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$237,760
N/A
N/A
$228,093
Settled
No
polymarket

Murzakanov to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,390
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Azamat Murzakanov by Submission

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$76,796
N/A
N/A
$72,425
Settled
No
kalshi

Paulo Henrique Costa by Decision

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$74,263
N/A
N/A
$67,227
Settled
No
kalshi

Paulo Henrique Costa by Submission

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$68,414
N/A
N/A
$67,627
Settled
No
kalshi

Azamat Murzakanov by Decision

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$62,795
N/A
N/A
$56,187
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,384
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,361
N/A
N/A
$10,111
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,966
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$811
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 16

Description

UFC 327 features a light heavyweight bout between Paulo Costa and Azamat Murzakanov scheduled for April 11, 2026, as part of the Procházka vs. Ulberg event card. Markets span winner determination, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration (rounds), and distance completion. Official UFC records serve as the authoritative resolution source across all platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi resolves YES for any fight outcome (submission, decision, KO/TKO, or draw), while Polymarket uses outcome-specific markets that each resolve independently based on the fight result. Kalshi's market is a catch-all 'fight happens' market, whereas Polymarket's markets segment by finish type and winner.Hero tip: If you trade on Kalshi's market, it resolves YES unless the fight is canceled or postponed beyond April 25, 2026. On Polymarket, each market (winner, submission, KO/TKO, distance) resolves independently based on the actual fight outcome. Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket outcomes will align — they measure different things.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi operates a single binary market that resolves YES for any fight result (submission by either fighter, decision by either fighter, KO/TKO/DQ by either fighter, or draw). The market only resolves NO if the fight does not occur. Key quote: 'If Azamat Murzakanov wins by Submission... then the market resolves to Yes' through 'If Paulo Henrique Costa wins by KO/TKO/DQ... then the market resolves to Yes' — all conditions resolve YES.
  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers multiple independent outcome-specific markets: (1) winner market (Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov, resolves 50-50 on draw/no-contest), (2) submission market (Yes if submission, No otherwise), (3) KO/TKO market (Yes if KO/TKO, No otherwise), (4) Paulo Costa KO/TKO market (Yes only if Costa wins by KO/TKO), (5) Azamat KO/TKO market (Yes only if Azamat wins by KO/TKO), (6) distance market (Yes if fight goes full rounds, No if stopped early). Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the fight... ends by submission' and separately 'This market will resolve to Yes if the fight... ends by KO or TKO' — each market is independent.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.