TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market will resolve to "Kelvin Gastelum" if Kelvin Gastelum is officially declared the winner of the fight against Vicente Luque at UFC 327: Procházka vs. Ulberg, scheduled for April 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Vicente Luque" if Vicente Luque is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different market structures and resolution scopes. Kalshi offers six binary markets on individual round outcomes (Rounds 1-3 for each fighter), while Polymarket offers multiple distinct markets covering winner, method of victory, fight duration, and distance. The platforms resolve on the same underlying UFC official source but structure their markets differently, creating different settlement pathways.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on specific round outcomes for each fighter—each market resolves independently based on which round the fight ends. On Polymarket, you are betting on broader categories: winner, method (KO/TKO vs submission), duration thresholds, or whether the fight goes the distance. Your Kalshi position may resolve YES in Round 1 while a Polymarket duration market resolves differently. Ensure your strategy aligns with the market structure you choose.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi structures the market as six separate binary outcomes, one for each fighter per round (Rounds 1, 2, 3). Each market resolves YES if that fighter wins in that specific round: 'If Kelvin Gastelum wins the Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque UFC fight originally scheduled for Apr 11, 2026 in Round 1, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a round-specific settlement logic where exactly one of the six markets will resolve YES (or all resolve NO if the fight goes to decision).Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket structures the market as multiple independent categorical markets: (1) winner (Gastelum vs Luque vs 50-50 draw/NC), (2) Vicente Luque KO/TKO win, (3) submission finish, (4-6) over/under round thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5), (7) Gastelum KO/TKO win, and (8) fight goes the distance. Each market resolves independently based on method and duration: 'This market will resolve to "Kelvin Gastelum" if Kelvin Gastelum is officially declared the winner' and 'Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight...lasts beyond the listed round threshold.' This creates a method-and-duration-specific settlement logic where multiple markets can resolve YES simultaneously (e.g., Gastelum wins AND fight goes distance).
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