TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$277,664,645
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,114,870
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,379,707,856
581,715
Markets across
14,439
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,118
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market will resolve to "Jirí Procházka" if Jirí Procházka is officially declared the winner of the fight against Carlos Ulberg at UFC 327: Procházka vs. Ulberg, scheduled for April 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Carlos Ulberg" if Carlos Ulberg is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi offers four binary markets on early-round finishes (before rounds 2, 3, 4, and 5) that function as overlapping subsets of fight duration, while Polymarket provides comprehensive outcome-specific markets (winner, method of victory, distance) plus round-duration thresholds. The platforms resolve on the same underlying UFC official result but structure their markets around different settlement dimensions: Kalshi focuses exclusively on early stoppage timing, whereas Polymarket covers winner identity, finish method, and round duration independently.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting purely on whether the fight ends early (before specific rounds); if you trade on Polymarket, you can isolate bets on who wins, how they win, or how long it lasts. A Kalshi YES on 'before round 2' is logically equivalent to a Polymarket YES on 'Under 1.5 Rounds', but Polymarket also lets you bet on Procházka vs. Ulberg as the winner independently. Ensure you are not double-counting the same outcome across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi offers four separate binary markets, each resolving YES if the fight ends before a specific round (2, 3, 4, or 5). These markets are mutually exclusive on timing thresholds but share the same underlying UFC official result source. Example: 'If the Jiri Prochazka vs. Carlos Ulberg UFC fight originally scheduled for Apr 11, 2026 ends before round 2, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers ten separate markets covering winner identity (Procházka vs. Ulberg or 50-50 on draw/no-contest), method of victory (KO/TKO by either fighter, submission, or distance), and round-duration thresholds (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 rounds). Each market resolves independently based on official UFC information. Example: 'This market will resolve to Yes if Carlos Ulberg defeats Jirí Procházka at UFC 327 by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage.'
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.