TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$244,265,276
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,349,697,137
578,254
Markets across
14,382
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,099
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers multiple prediction markets for the UFC 326 light heavyweight early prelim bout between Rodolfo Bellato and Luke Fernandez, scheduled for March 7, 2026. Markets span winner determination, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission), fight duration, and round thresholds across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets across both platforms resolve to official UFC declaration of fight outcome, with identical edge-case handling for draws, technical decisions, no contests, cancellations, and postponements beyond March 21, 2026.
Primary resolution logic:
Official information from the UFC (ufc.com/events)Core resolution logic:
- Winner determination: Resolves to the fighter officially declared winner by the UFC. If Rodolfo Bellato wins, Kalshi resolves Yes; Polymarket resolves to Bellato. If Luke Fernandez wins, Kalshi resolves Yes; Polymarket resolves to Fernandez.
- Method of victory (KO/TKO): Resolves Yes if the fight ends by knockout, technical knockout, referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Resolves No if fight ends by decision, submission, draw, or disqualification.
- Submission victory: Resolves Yes if fight ends by submission including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to submission hold). Resolves No for draws, disqualifications, or non-submission finishes.
- Fight distance (Go the Distance): Resolves Yes if fight completes all scheduled rounds and result is determined by judges' scorecards, including judge-decided draws. Resolves No for early stoppages, technical decisions, or technical draws before completion.
- Round thresholds (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5): Over resolves if fight continues past the 2:30 mark of the specified round. Under resolves if fight ends before that threshold. Exact threshold times resolve 50-50.
- Draw or technical draw: All markets resolve No for method-of-victory questions; winner market resolves 50-50.
- No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026: All markets resolve 50-50.
- Disqualification (either fighter): Method-of-victory markets resolve No; winner market resolves 50-50.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Exact Round Threshold: If fight ends exactly at the threshold time (e.g., 2:30 of Round 1 for O/U 0.5), the market resolves 50-50.
- Technical Decision or Technical Draw: Resolves No for Go the Distance market and method-of-victory markets. Winner market resolves 50-50 if technical draw; resolves to the fighter with the technical decision if one is declared.
- Draw by Judges' Scorecards: Go the Distance market resolves Yes (fight completed all rounds). Winner market resolves 50-50. Method-of-victory markets resolve No.
- Postponement Beyond March 21, 2026: All markets in the group resolve 50-50 if bout is postponed beyond the March 21, 2026 cutoff date.
- Disqualification: Winner market resolves 50-50. All method-of-victory markets (KO/TKO, submission) resolve No.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on or shortly after March 7, 2026, upon official UFC declaration of fight outcome. Markets remain open for settlement until official UFC result is published. Any postponement beyond March 21, 2026 triggers 50-50 resolution across all markets in the group.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.15.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.