TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Bundesliga 2 soccer match between TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf and SC Preußen Münster scheduled for February 13, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket assess the outcome (win/loss/draw) based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation handling differs between platforms. Kalshi's three mutually exclusive outcomes all resolve to Yes, creating ambiguity. Polymarket applies asymmetric cancellation rules: win markets resolve No on cancellation, but draw market resolves Yes.Hero Tip:
Request explicit cancellation clarification from both platforms. If the game is canceled with no makeup, Polymarket traders face a logical trap: draw market pays out while win markets do not. Kalshi's phrasing suggests all three outcomes resolve Yes if the game is played, but this needs confirmation—only one outcome can occur in a real match.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Three separate markets, each stating that if its outcome occurs, it resolves Yes. Structure implies all three resolve Yes if the game is played, but this is logically impossible since only one outcome can occur. No explicit cancellation clause provided. Key Quote: 'If Munster wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Dusseldorf wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Three separate markets with explicit cancellation rules. Dusseldorf win and Munster win markets resolve No if game is canceled; Draw market resolves Yes if game is canceled. All three resolve based on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No"' (win markets) vs. 'this market will resolve "Yes"' (draw market).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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