TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
In the upcoming Bundesliga game between TSG 1899 Hoffenheim and BV Borussia 09 Dortmund, scheduled for April 18, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market structure is logically incoherent: all three possible halftime outcomes (Hoffenheim win, Draw, Dortmund win) are defined to resolve YES, making the market unresolvable and contradicting the mutually exclusive nature of halftime results. Polymarket correctly structures three separate binary markets for each outcome.Hero Tip:
Avoid Kalshi's halftime result markets entirely—they contain a fundamental logical flaw that makes settlement impossible. Trade only on Polymarket, where the three binary markets (Hoffenheim leading, Draw, Dortmund leading) are properly mutually exclusive and resolvable.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three separate binary markets, each asking a distinct question: (1) Does Hoffenheim lead at halftime? (2) Is it a draw at halftime? (3) Does Dortmund lead at halftime? Exactly one resolves YES based on the actual halftime score. Resolution source: official governing body statistics within 24 hours, or credible reporting consensus if delayed. Postponement keeps market open; cancellation resolves NO.Kalshi:
Single market with three resolution conditions, each stating 'then the market resolves to Yes': (1) If Hoffenheim wins first half, resolve YES. (2) If Tie occurs in first half, resolve YES. (3) If Dortmund wins first half, resolve YES. This creates a logical impossibility—every possible halftime outcome triggers YES, making the market unresolvable and contradicting basic settlement principles.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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