TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 20 at 8:00PM ET: If the Trail Blazers win, the market will resolve to "Trail Blazers". If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different market structures. Polymarket offers traditional moneyline, spread, and over/under markets with consistent resolution based on final game score and official NBA box scores. Kalshi offers only directional spread markets (win-margin thresholds) without moneyline or over/under options, creating a partial but distinct market universe.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Polymarket, you have access to moneyline, multiple spread tiers, and over/under markets all resolving to official NBA.com box scores. On Kalshi, you can only bet on specific win-margin outcomes (e.g., Minnesota wins by more than 3.5 points). The two platforms do not directly compete on identical markets—Kalshi's spread thresholds are narrower and more granular, while Polymarket offers broader market types. Arbitrage is unlikely because the markets serve different betting preferences.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers a comprehensive market suite including moneyline (Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves winner), multiple spread tiers (Timberwolves -1.5, -2.5, -3.5), over/under totals (228.5 through 232.5), first-half moneyline, first-half spreads, first-half over/unders, and extensive player prop markets (points, rebounds, assists). All resolve based on official NBA.com box scores and final game score including overtime. Cancellation resolves 50-50; postponement keeps market open until completion.Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi offers only directional spread markets with specific win-margin thresholds: Portland wins by >3.5, >6.5, >9.5, >12.5, >15.5, >18.5, >21.5, >24.5, >27.5 points, and Minnesota wins by >3.5, >6.5, >9.5, >12.5, >15.5, >18.5 points. Each threshold is a separate binary market (Yes/No). No moneyline, no over/unders, no player props, and no explicit cancellation or postponement rules stated in the provided descriptions.
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