TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Ligue 1 game, scheduled for Sunday, April 12, 2026 between Toulouse FC and Lille OSC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's three markets collectively cover all possible outcomes (Lille win, Toulouse win, Draw) and each resolves to Yes for its respective outcome, creating logical contradiction where exactly one must resolve Yes. Polymarket's three markets are mutually exclusive and properly structured: only one outcome can occur. The platforms use fundamentally incompatible resolution architectures for the same event.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across both platforms assuming they settle identically. Kalshi's market structure guarantees exactly one YES resolution across its three markets combined, while Polymarket's markets are independent binary outcomes. If you hedge by buying YES on all three Kalshi markets, you will profit on exactly one; if you hedge on all three Polymarket markets, you may profit on zero or one depending on the result. Kalshi's design is a 'resolution pool' (one winner per outcome type), while Polymarket's is a 'standard binary suite' (one outcome occurs, others resolve NO).Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi presents three separate markets, each resolving to Yes if its specific outcome occurs (Lille win, Toulouse win, or Draw). The rules state 'If Lille wins... then the market resolves to Yes', 'If Toulouse wins... then the market resolves to Yes', and 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes'. This creates a logical structure where exactly one of the three Kalshi markets will resolve Yes, and the other two will implicitly resolve No. The architecture treats each outcome as a distinct market rather than as mutually exclusive binary propositions.Polymarket:
Aligned with standard sports betting logic: Polymarket offers three independent binary markets (Toulouse win Yes/No, Draw Yes/No, Lille win Yes/No) that are mutually exclusive by definition of the underlying event. Each market independently resolves Yes or No based on whether its specific outcome occurs. The rules explicitly state 'If Toulouse FC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No', establishing clear binary logic for each market independently.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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