TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Closed: Apr 12, 6:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group compares the 2026 Masters Tournament performance of Rory McIlroy against Scottie Scheffler in a head-to-head matchup format. Resolution depends on which player finishes with the lower cumulative score across all rounds of the main tournament at Augusta National.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction where both mutually exclusive outcomes (McIlroy wins OR Scheffler wins) are mapped to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket defines a coherent mutually exclusive binary with explicit tie and withdrawal handling.Hero Tip:
Polymarket's market is resolvable and clear. Avoid Kalshi until the platform clarifies whether the Yes outcome should apply to only one specific player or whether the market structure itself needs revision. The contradiction makes Kalshi's market uninsurable.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Defines two separate Yes conditions: 'If Rory McIlroy wins... resolves to Yes' AND 'If Scottie Scheffler wins... resolves to Yes.' Since one player must win, both conditions are always true, creating a logical impossibility. No No outcome is defined.Polymarket:
Defines mutually exclusive outcomes: resolves to McIlroy if he has lower score, otherwise Scheffler. Includes explicit 50-50 tie resolution, withdrawal rules (resolves in favor of opposing player), cut-miss rules (resolves in favor of player who makes cut), and cancellation rules (50-50 if cancelled after April 20, 2026 11:59 PM ET). Primary source: official Masters leaderboard at masters.com.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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