TOTAL VOLUME:

$143.8b

24H VOL:

$143,039,774

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,692,829,820

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,695,773,424

460,910

Markets across

35,548

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,848

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Texas Senate Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Who will win the Texas Senate election?

Total volume:
$33,670,385
Volume 24h:
$566,277
40%
Liquidity:
$1,101,601
19%
Open interest:
$21,090,436
2%

James Talarico (D)

all

3 markets

Predict

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 4, 2027

Time left: 17d:04h:41m

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

63%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 64¢ buys you 156 shares | Odds: 63% Total Payout: $156 | Net Profit: $56 Multiplier: 1.56x | ROI: 56% APY not meaningful 17 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

James Talarico (D)

Trade
63%
Yes 64¢No 38.6¢
2.6¢
$131,195
$2,171
0%
0%
N/A
2w 3d 4h
active
polymarket

Democrat

Trade
63%
Yes 63¢No 38¢
1¢
$454,240
$1,817,037
3%
24%
N/A
2w 3d 4h
active
kalshi

James Talarico

Trade
61%
Yes 62¢No 39¢
1¢
N/A
$10,729,702
1%
16%
$7,501,344
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
61.2%
Yes 63¢No 38.5¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2.6¢
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
40%
1%
Yes 40¢No 61¢
1¢
N/A
$18,925,243
2%
31%
$13,589,092
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

Republican

Trade
38%
1%
Yes 38¢No 63¢
1¢
$432,455
$2,195,666
3%
30%
N/A
2w 3d 4h
active
predict

Ken Paxton (R)

Trade
37%
Yes 38.6¢No 64¢
2.6¢
$83,711
$566
0%
31%
N/A
2w 3d 4h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
39.7%
Yes 38.9¢No 62.7¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2.6¢
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, specifically whether Democrats will win the race. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict is 62.7% in favor of a Democratic victory, with Republicans currently at 40%. Resolution will be based on reporting from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with official certification used as a fallback. Traders should watch the results of the primary elections, scheduled throughout 2026, for early signals of each party’s strength heading into the general election.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms align on resolving to the winner of the 2026 Texas Senate election, using the same primary sources and fallback mechanism.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with fallback to official certification)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the candidate who wins the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, including any runoff elections.
  • The winner is determined by a consensus call from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If no consensus, the official certification prevails.
  • Candidates running as independents are not considered part of the 'Democrat' or 'Republican' options.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Source Disagreement: If the AP, Fox News, and NBC do not all call the race for the same candidate, the official certification of the election results will be used to determine the winner.
  • Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws before the election, markets referencing that candidate will likely be canceled or adjusted based on platform policy. This is outside the scope of the core resolution logic.
Timing: The market will resolve once all three primary sources (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) call the race for the same candidate, or upon official certification of the election results.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by which party's representative is sworn in as Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027. The market tracks the outcome of the 2026 Texas Senate election, with resolution contingent upon the winning candidate's party affiliation at the time of their swearing-in for the new term.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the outcome of the Texas Senate election by aggregating trading volume across both platforms. Currently, the combined volume for this market is $33,669,414, with $536,951 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of predictions regarding the election's winner, reflecting the collective wisdom of market participants. The dashboard allows you to compare probabilities and see how sentiment shifts over time as new information becomes available regarding the Texas Senate election.

Prediction market odds often offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* on, which can reveal underlying beliefs and information not captured in surveys. Prediction markets tend to incorporate a wider range of data, including fundraising numbers, endorsements, and real-time events. It's important to remember that both methods have limitations, but examining both can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the race for the Texas Senate.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading fees, and liquidity, which can influence price discovery. Additionally, differing market designs or the presence of large traders on one platform but not the other can create temporary discrepancies. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? at 62.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas? at 61.0%. These differences highlight the dynamic nature of prediction markets and the constant interplay of supply and demand.

This market resolves around Jan 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the Texas Senate election, as declared by official election results, will determine the outcome. This market is designed to reflect the real-world outcome of the election, providing a clear and objective resolution based on publicly available data. Traders should monitor news sources and official election websites as the resolution date approaches.

Numerous signals could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, shifts in fundraising totals, and significant debate performances are all potential catalysts. Unexpected economic news affecting Texas, or national political developments could also influence trading activity. Polling data releases, while often already priced in, can still cause short-term fluctuations. Any event that alters perceptions of candidate viability could lead to substantial price movements in this market, as traders adjust their predictions based on new information.