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2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
Elections
kalshi

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

May 10, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Jan 21, 2029, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$62,398,093
Volume 24h:
$326,205
10%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$44,252,258
0.63%

J.D. Vance

 - Kalshi

J.D. Vance - Kalshi

20%

+1%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Aug 19

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Vol.

$113.7k

·

Resolves Jan 21, 2029

Who will win the next presidential election?

20%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 20¢ buys you 500 shares | Odds: 20% Total Payout: $500 | Net Profit: $400 Multiplier: 5.00x | ROI: 400% | APY: 95% 878 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 25 of 30

Intro

This market tracks who will win the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election on Kalshi, with the leading outcome currently at 19.0% and the second outcome at 14.0%. The resolution source is whether Jon Ossoff is inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029. Watch for the inauguration date of January 21, 2029, which will determine the market outcome.

Kalshi

If Gavin Newsom is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pete Buttigieg is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Josh Shapiro is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kamala Harris is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Wes Moore is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Stephen A. Smith is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gretchen Whitmer is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Andy Beshear is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If J.B. Pritzker is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If J.D. Vance is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tulsi Gabbard is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Donald J. Trump is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marco Rubio is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Glenn Youngkin is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Donald J. Trump Jr. is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nikki Haley is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ron DeSantis is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vivek Ramaswamy is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Greg Abbott is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tim Walz is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jamie Dimon is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jon Ossoff is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mark Kelly is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tucker Carlson is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Thomas Massie is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rahm Emanuel is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If James Talarico is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hunter Biden is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner market on Kalshi. It displays the current implied probability of each candidate outcome, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $306,196. The dashboard aggregates total group volume of $62,398,093 to show overall market interest and liquidity. Users can monitor how odds shift as new information emerges, compare candidate probabilities, and review trading patterns to understand which outcomes traders favor most heavily.

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because traders incorporate real-money incentives, forward-looking expectations, and event probabilities that polls may lag in capturing. While polls measure voter preference at a snapshot in time, prediction markets reflect traders' beliefs about the actual election outcome, including uncertainty and late-breaking developments. Markets typically show sharper movements around major events like debates, endorsements, or economic shifts. Comparing the two reveals whether markets are pricing in scenarios that current polls have not yet reflected, offering complementary perspectives on the race.

On Kalshi, the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner market is priced as binary contracts reflecting the probability of each candidate outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The top outcome currently carries an implied probability of 20.0%, with volume of $62,398,093 across all outcomes. Prices fluctuate based on order flow and trader sentiment, with each contract settling to either one dollar or zero depending on the actual election result. Traders buy contracts at lower prices if they believe an outcome is underpriced, or sell if they think it is overpriced, driving prices toward consensus probability estimates.

The market resolves on Jan 21, 2029, following the official certification of the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election results. Resolution is determined by the winner declared by major U.S. news organizations and confirmed through official state and federal election processes. The market tracks the candidate who wins the Electoral College majority, as that is the constitutional standard for U.S. presidential victory. Once the outcome is finalized and verified, all contracts settle accordingly, and traders receive payouts based on their positions.

Major signals include candidate announcements and campaign momentum, primary election results and endorsements, economic data and inflation trends, geopolitical crises or international incidents, debate performances and gaffes, polling shifts in key swing states, and fundraising totals. Health or personal scandals involving candidates can trigger sharp repricing. Legislative achievements or failures in Congress may shift voter sentiment. Media coverage intensity and social media trends also influence trader behavior. Late-breaking developments in the final weeks—such as surprise endorsements, October surprises, or unexpected candidate withdrawals—historically produce the largest market moves as traders reassess probabilities.