Kalshi's market rules contain a logical contradiction: all three outcomes (Tie, Petrojet win, El Gaish win) are marked to resolve YES, making it impossible to determine a single resolution outcome. Polymarket provides three separate, mutually exclusive markets with clear resolution logic for each outcome.
Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market in this group — it is logically unresolvable as written. The three Kalshi conditions cannot all resolve YES simultaneously. Trade only the Polymarket markets (Petrojet win, Draw, El Gaish win), which have clear, mutually exclusive resolution paths.
Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Contains three separate conditions, each stating 'then the market resolves to Yes' for mutually exclusive outcomes (Tie, Petrojet win, El Gaish win). This creates a logical impossibility where all three outcomes cannot occur simultaneously, yet all three are marked to resolve YES. Key quote: 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Petrojet wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If El Gaish wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Polymarket:
Aligned with sound resolution logic: Provides three separate, mutually exclusive markets — one for Petrojet win (YES/NO), one for Draw (YES/NO), and one for El Gaish win (YES/NO) — ensuring exactly one outcome resolves YES and the others resolve NO. Key quote: 'If Petrojet SC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.' (and equivalent logic for the other two markets).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.