TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 21 at 4:00PM ET: If the Stars win, the market will resolve to "Stars". If the Wild win, the market will resolve to "Wild". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi offers multiple over/under markets on total goals (2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5) that all resolve identically to YES if their threshold is exceeded, creating redundant binary outcomes. Polymarket provides distinct over/under markets at specific thresholds (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) with clear Over/Under resolution, plus moneyline and spread markets. The platforms differ in market structure, granularity, and scope.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's multiple overlapping goal thresholds all trigger YES on the same game outcome, making them functionally redundant—avoid over-hedging across them. Polymarket's markets are independent: each O/U threshold is a separate binary choice (Over vs Under), and the moneyline/spread markets operate on different logic entirely. If you trade across both platforms, understand that Kalshi's YES on any threshold is not equivalent to Polymarket's Over at that same threshold due to different resolution mechanics.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi offers eight separate binary YES/NO markets, all on the same underlying event (total goals in the game), where each market resolves YES if its specific over-threshold is met. All eight markets resolve YES simultaneously if the final goal total exceeds the highest threshold (9.5). Key quote: 'If over 2.5 total combined goals are scored... then the market resolves to Yes' through 'If over 9.5 total combined goals are scored... then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers a moneyline market (Stars vs Wild winner), three independent O/U markets at specific thresholds (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 goals) with binary Over/Under outcomes, and two spread markets (Wild -1.5, Stars -1.5). Each O/U market resolves to either Over or Under based on whether the combined goal total meets or exceeds the threshold. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Over if the Stars and Wild combine to score 5 or more goals' (for O/U 4.5) and 'This market will resolve to Stars if the Stars win the game by 2 or more goals' (for spread).
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