TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 31 at 7:00PM ET: If the Stars win, the market will resolve to "Stars". If the Bruins win, the market will resolve to "Bruins". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use different threshold interpretations for over/under markets. Kalshi frames thresholds as 'over X goals' (meaning > X), while Polymarket frames identical thresholds with explicit goal counts (e.g., 'O/U 4.5' resolves Over at 5+ goals). Both platforms agree on the underlying game and source (Dallas vs Boston, March 31, 2026), but differ in how they communicate and apply threshold logic across their respective over/under markets.Hero Tip:
When comparing Kalshi and Polymarket over/under markets on this game, verify the exact threshold: Kalshi's 'over 4.5' means greater than 4.5 goals, while Polymarket's 'O/U 4.5' explicitly resolves Over at 5 or more goals. The outcomes are equivalent, but the phrasing differs. For the moneyline and spread markets, both platforms align on the same resolution logic.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi offers eight over/under markets using the phrasing 'over X.5 total combined goals' (over 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5), where each resolves Yes if the threshold is exceeded. The platform does not provide explicit moneyline or spread markets in the source data, only goal-total thresholds. Key quote: 'If over 2.5 total combined goals are scored in the Dallas vs Boston professional hockey game originally scheduled for Mar 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers a moneyline market (Stars vs Bruins winner), four over/under markets (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 with explicit goal minimums: 5, 6, 7, 8 respectively), and a spread market (Stars -1.5). Polymarket's over/under phrasing explicitly states the goal count required (e.g., 'resolve to Over if the Stars and Bruins combine to score 5 or more goals'). Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Over if the Stars and Bruins combine to score 5 or more goals in this game.'
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