TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$236,615,189
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,344,513,070
577,941
Markets across
14,530
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,090
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers SS Lazio vs. US Sassuolo Calcio, a Serie A professional soccer match scheduled for March 9, 2026. The markets span multiple spread thresholds, over/under goal totals, and both-teams-to-score outcomes, all resolving based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi markets use symmetric threshold logic (either team exceeding a goal margin triggers YES), while Polymarket uses directional spread logic (one specific team must win by that margin). This creates different resolution outcomes for identical match results.Hero Tip:
Understand that Kalshi's YES outcome requires EITHER team to exceed the threshold, whereas Polymarket's YES requires a SPECIFIC team to win by that margin. A 2-1 Lazio win triggers Kalshi Market 1 (more than 1.5 goals by either team) but only Polymarket's Lazio (-1.5) spread. Cross-platform arbitrage requires careful threshold mapping.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Directional spread markets: Lazio (-2.5) YES if Lazio wins by 3+; Lazio (-1.5) YES if Lazio wins by 2+; Sassuolo (-1.5) YES if Sassuolo wins by 2+; Sassuolo (-2.5) YES if Sassuolo wins by 3+. Over/Under markets: O/U 1.5 (2+ goals combined), O/U 2.5 (3+ goals), O/U 3.5 (4+ goals), O/U 4.5 (5+ goals). Both Teams to Score: YES if each team scores 1+. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to SS Lazio if SS Lazio win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to US Sassuolo Calcio.'Kalshi:
Symmetric threshold markets: Market 1 YES if Sassuolo wins by more than 1.5 goals OR Lazio wins by more than 1.5 goals (2+ by either team). Market 2 YES if Sassuolo wins by more than 2.5 goals OR Lazio wins by more than 2.5 goals (3+ by either team). No explicit Over/Under or Both Teams to Score markets in Kalshi source data. Key Quote: 'If Sassuolo wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Sassuolo at Lazio professional Serie A soccer game... then the market resolves to Yes. If Lazio wins by more than 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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