TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Saturday, April 11, 2026 between Sporting Kansas City and San Jose Earthquakes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (SKU subset architecture) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi collapses all three outcomes into a single market that resolves YES for any result. This creates a logical contradiction: Polymarket's markets are designed so that exactly one outcome wins, but Kalshi's market resolves YES regardless of which team wins or if the match ends in a draw.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge Polymarket and Kalshi positions on this event. If you bet YES on any Polymarket market, you are betting against the other two Polymarket markets (mutually exclusive). On Kalshi, betting YES always wins if the match completes as scheduled. The platforms are fundamentally incompatible for arbitrage or hedging purposes.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Polymarket structures this as three separate binary markets (SKU/subset architecture) where exactly one resolves YES and the other two resolve NO. Each market is mutually exclusive: 'Will Sporting Kansas City win', 'Will the match end in a draw', 'Will San Jose Earthquakes win'. Only the outcome that actually occurs resolves YES; the other two resolve NO. This is a classic three-way split market design.Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi collapses all three outcomes into a single market with three resolution paths, all leading to YES. The market states 'If Kansas City wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If San Jose wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' This market resolves YES for any match result (home win, away win, or draw), making it functionally a bet on whether the match completes, not on the outcome.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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