TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$222,594,306
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,033,877
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,328,926,524
576,847
Markets across
14,568
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,055
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a women's college basketball game between SMU Mustangs and North Carolina Tar Heels scheduled for February 12, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET. Markets resolve based on which team wins the game, with provisions for postponement, cancellation, and overtime.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic contains a logical contradiction where both possible game outcomes (North Carolina win and SMU win) are mapped to the same resolution state (Yes), making the market fundamentally unresolvable and creating a data integrity failure.Hero Tip:
Avoid trading the Kalshi contract until the platform clarifies the resolution logic. The current wording guarantees Yes regardless of outcome, which violates basic market design. Polymarket's binary winner-take-all structure is logically sound and should be the reference for this event.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Clean binary winner-take-all structure. SMU win resolves to SMU Mustangs, North Carolina win resolves to North Carolina Tar Heels. Handles postponement (market stays open) and cancellation (50-50 split). Resolution based on final score including overtime.Kalshi:
Yes/No framework with critical flaw: both North Carolina win and SMU win are stated to resolve to Yes, leaving no logical path to No. This creates an unresolvable market condition and suggests a drafting error in the resolution criteria.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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