TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Saturday, March 28, 2026 between Scotland and Japan.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents three separate binary markets (Japan wins, Scotland wins, Tie) that each resolve YES independently, while Polymarket structures three mutually exclusive markets (Scotland wins, Draw, Japan wins) where exactly one resolves YES. This creates fundamentally different settlement logic: Kalshi allows multiple YES resolutions simultaneously, whereas Polymarket enforces a single outcome.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, understand that all three markets can resolve YES at once (e.g., if Scotland wins, both the Scotland market AND the Tie market would resolve YES if a tie occurs — but only one outcome is possible per match). On Polymarket, exactly one of the three markets will resolve YES, making them true mutually exclusive bets. Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket payouts will align; verify the actual match result against each platform's specific resolution rules.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi presents three independent binary markets, each resolving YES if its specified outcome occurs (Japan wins, Scotland wins, or Tie). The rules state 'If Japan wins... then the market resolves to Yes' and separately 'If Scotland wins... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes,' implying all three can resolve YES simultaneously depending on the match result, though logically only one outcome will occur.Polymarket:
Aligned with Kalshi on scope and timing: Polymarket also covers the same match (Scotland vs. Japan on 2026-03-28) within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, using FIFA as the primary resolution source. However, Polymarket structures three mutually exclusive markets (Scotland win, Draw, Japan win) where exactly one resolves YES and the others resolve NO, enforcing a single outcome per match. Polymarket also includes explicit cancellation logic: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No' for win markets but 'resolve Yes' for the draw market.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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