TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
More markets for the Brazil Série A game, scheduled for April 5 at 6:30 PM ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different market structures and thresholds for spread markets. Polymarket offers spread markets at -2.5, -1.5 thresholds with binary outcomes (one team wins by that margin or the other outcome occurs), while Kalshi structures its markets as separate Yes/No propositions for each team winning by each margin threshold, creating different settlement mechanics.Hero Tip:
If you trade spread markets, note that Polymarket's -2.5 spread for Corinthians resolves YES only if Corinthians wins by 3+ goals (otherwise NO), whereas Kalshi's equivalent market resolves YES if either Corinthians wins by 3+ OR Internacional wins by 3+. The outcome sets are logically different: Polymarket's binary structure means exactly one outcome per margin threshold, while Kalshi's dual Yes/No propositions can both resolve Yes if either team hits the threshold.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket uses binary spread markets where each threshold (-2.5, -1.5) is a single market with two mutually exclusive outcomes. For example, Spread: SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5) resolves YES if Corinthians wins by 3+, otherwise NO. All markets share identical resolution source (cbf.com.br official final score, 90 minutes plus stoppage time only) and identical postponement/cancellation rules (50-50 if canceled, remains open if postponed).Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi structures spread markets as separate Yes/No propositions for each team and threshold combination. Market 1 resolves Yes if Corinthians wins by 3+, Market 2 resolves Yes if Internacional wins by 3+, Market 3 resolves Yes if Corinthians wins by 2+, Market 4 resolves Yes if Internacional wins by 2+. This allows both markets in a pair to resolve Yes simultaneously, differing fundamentally from Polymarket's mutually exclusive binary structure. No explicit resolution source, postponement, or cancellation rules are provided for Kalshi markets.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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