TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 19 at 10:00PM ET: If the Sabres win, the market will resolve to "Sabres". If the Sharks win, the market will resolve to "Sharks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks for the same game. Kalshi resolves based on goal-differential thresholds (spread markets), while Polymarket resolves based on moneyline winner and total goals scored. These frameworks cannot both be satisfied by a single game outcome, creating logical incompatibility.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket markets will settle identically. A Sabres win by exactly 2 goals resolves YES on Kalshi's spread market but does not directly map to any Polymarket outcome. Traders must track both platforms separately and account for the possibility that one platform's YES outcome may not correspond to the other's.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves on goal-differential thresholds only. Markets resolve YES if Buffalo wins by over 1.5 goals, Buffalo wins by over 2.5 goals, San Jose wins by over 1.5 goals, or San Jose wins by over 2.5 goals. No moneyline or total-goals markets are offered. Key quote: 'If Buffalo wins by over 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If San Jose wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves on moneyline winner (Sabres vs. Sharks) and total combined goals (Over/Under 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5). No goal-differential spread markets are offered. Key quote: 'If the Sabres win, the market will resolve to Sabres. If the Sharks win, the market will resolve to Sharks' and 'This market will resolve to Over if the Sabres and Sharks combine to score 5 or more goals.'
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