TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
More markets for the La Liga game, scheduled for March 22 at 4:00 PM ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different threshold structures for spread markets. Polymarket offers spreads at -1.5 and -2.5 goals for each team, while Kalshi offers markets at -1.5 and -2.5 goals but frames them as separate Yes/No propositions rather than binary either/or outcomes.Hero Tip:
On Polymarket, betting one side of a spread market automatically means the other side loses. On Kalshi, the four markets are independent Yes/No propositions—it is theoretically possible (though unlikely) for multiple Kalshi markets to resolve Yes if the margin falls on a boundary, whereas Polymarket spreads are mutually exclusive. Verify your position structure before trading across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Aligned with Kalshi on underlying event and resolution source: Polymarket settles all markets (spreads, totals, both teams to score) on the official final score from laliga.com after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Spreads are binary either/or: 'This market will resolve to Real Madrid CF if Real Madrid CF win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Club Atlético de Madrid.'Kalshi:
Aligned with Polymarket on underlying event and resolution source: Kalshi settles on the official final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. However, Kalshi frames spread outcomes as independent Yes/No propositions rather than mutually exclusive binary outcomes: 'If Real Madrid wins by more than 1.5 goals...then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Atletico wins by more than 1.5 goals...then the market resolves to Yes,' creating four separate markets that could theoretically both resolve Yes in edge cases.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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