TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market resolves based on the outcome of a single Rainbow Six Siege match between Team Liquid and Black Dragons e-Sports in the South America League Kickoff Group A, scheduled for March 31, 2026 at 6:15 PM ET. The winner of the match determines the market resolution, with specific handling for cancellations, ties, forfeits, and delays.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution language is ambiguous regarding scope (match vs. tournament outcome), while Polymarket provides explicit match-level resolution with comprehensive edge-case handling. The divergence creates interpretation risk but does not render either market fundamentally unresolvable under standard match completion scenarios.Hero Tip:
For trading purposes, treat Polymarket as the authoritative resolution framework. Monitor Kalshi's official clarification on whether their market resolves on match outcome or tournament placement. If the match completes with a clear winner, both platforms should resolve consistently; divergence risk is highest in cancellation, tie, or forfeit scenarios.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Resolution criteria state that if either team wins the match, the market resolves to Yes. However, the phrasing conflates the match outcome with the tournament outcome ("wins the South America League Kickoff 2026"), creating ambiguity about whether the market resolves on match result or tournament placement. No explicit handling of cancellations, ties, or forfeits is provided.Polymarket:
Resolves to the winning team if the match is completed. Explicitly resolves to 50-50 for cancellations, ties, delays beyond 7 days without a winner, or pre-match forfeits. Mid-match forfeits or walkovers resolve to the winning team. Resolution source is Liquipedia with 2-hour fallback to credible reporting and video evidence.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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