TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 6 at 10:30PM ET: If the Predators win, the market will resolve to "Predators". If the Kings win, the market will resolve to "Kings". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution scopes for the same game. Kalshi resolves on individual team margin-of-victory thresholds (1.5 or 2.5 goal spreads), while Polymarket resolves on combined total goals scored (Over/Under markets at 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 thresholds), plus a moneyline market. These are distinct outcome categories that do not map to each other.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on whether LA or Nashville wins by a specific margin. If you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on total combined goals or which team wins. A single game result can satisfy Kalshi conditions while failing Polymarket conditions, or vice versa. Example: if LA wins 3-1 (4 total goals), Kalshi's 'LA wins by over 1.5' resolves YES, but Polymarket's O/U 4.5 resolves NO (exactly 4 goals, not 5+). Do not assume cross-platform hedging.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves on margin-of-victory thresholds for each team. Four separate markets each trigger on either LA or Nashville winning by over 1.5 or over 2.5 goals. Key quote: 'If Los Angeles wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Nashville wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves on combined total goals (Over/Under at 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 thresholds) plus a moneyline (Predators vs. Kings winner) and a spread market (Kings -1.5). Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Over if the Predators and Kings combine to score 5 or more goals' (O/U 4.5) and 'If the Kings win the game by 2 or more goals' (Spread: Kings -1.5).
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