TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Europe World Cup Qualifiers game, scheduled for Thursday, March 26, 2026 between Poland and Albania.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's three markets create a logical contradiction where every possible outcome (Albania win, Poland win, or tie) resolves to YES, making the market group fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket uses standard binary logic with three separate markets that can each resolve independently and consistently.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's Poland vs. Albania group — the resolution rules are logically broken and will resolve YES regardless of the actual match outcome. Polymarket's three markets (Poland win, Albania win, draw) are standard and resolvable. Trade only on Polymarket if you want a reliable outcome.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Uses three markets that each resolve YES for mutually exclusive outcomes (Albania win, Poland win, or tie), creating a logical impossibility where all three markets resolve YES simultaneously regardless of the actual result. Key quote: 'If Albania wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Poland wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Aligned with standard prediction market logic: Offers three independent binary markets (Poland win YES/NO, Albania win YES/NO, draw YES/NO) where exactly one resolves YES and the other two resolve NO based on the actual match outcome. Key quote: 'If Poland wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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