TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.6b
24H VOL:
$215,176,776
24H TRANSACTIONS:
595,647,402
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,321,740,341
576,656
Markets across
14,624
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,045
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Closed: May 20, 11:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This event group covers a single MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals scheduled for May 20, 2026 at 7:45 PM EDT. Both platforms are pricing the same underlying sporting event with identical game parameters (teams, date, time).
Prediction market odds on Predict reflect decentralized trader consensus and typically differ from traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks adjust odds to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets price outcomes based purely on trader belief and capital allocation. The Pirates-Cardinals matchup may show wider or narrower spreads depending on how much volume flows into each side. Comparing Predict prices to major sportsbooks reveals whether the crowd on prediction markets is more or less bullish on Pittsburgh than conventional oddsmakers.
On Predict, the Pirates-Cardinals matchup is priced through continuous order-book trading where buyers and sellers set the market price for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders purchase shares representing a Pirates win or a Cardinals win, and the price of each reflects the implied probability assigned by the market. As new information emerges—injuries, lineup changes, or recent performance—traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. The current price directly translates to the crowd's estimated likelihood of each team winning.
The market resolves on May 21, 2026, after the game concludes. Resolution is determined by the official final score recorded by Major League Baseball. The winning outcome is the team that scores more runs at the end of nine innings or in extra innings if necessary. Once the game ends and the official result is confirmed, the market settles automatically, and traders holding shares in the winning outcome receive their payout based on the price at which they entered.
Key catalysts for price movement include roster changes such as injuries to star players, last-minute lineup adjustments, or trades affecting either team's depth. Recent performance trends, winning or losing streaks, and head-to-head historical matchups influence trader confidence. Weather conditions at game time, home-field advantage, and pitching matchups—particularly the starting pitchers' form and statistics—can shift market sentiment significantly. Breaking news about player health, suspension, or unexpected roster moves will trigger immediate repricing as traders react and rebalance their positions.
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