TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 19 at 7:00PM ET: If the Pistons win, the market will resolve to "Pistons". If the Wizards win, the market will resolve to "Wizards". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution structures. Polymarket offers 127 granular markets (moneyline, spreads, player props, totals) each with specific thresholds and resolution criteria tied to official NBA box scores. Kalshi provides only a single binary market that resolves YES if either Detroit or Washington wins, creating a logical contradiction: both outcomes cannot simultaneously resolve to YES in a single market.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-trade between these platforms. Polymarket markets are designed for precision betting on specific outcomes (e.g., Pistons win by 15+ points, Jalen Duren scores 23.5+). Kalshi's market is structurally broken—it will resolve YES regardless of the game result, making it unsuitable for directional betting. Treat Kalshi as a data integrity failure and avoid exposure.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers 127 separate markets, each with precise resolution logic tied to official NBA box scores published on NBA.com. Markets include moneyline (Pistons vs. Wizards), multiple spread tiers (Pistons -11.5 through -26.5), full-game and first-half totals (O/U 216.5 through 232.5), and individual player props (points, rebounds, assists). Each market specifies exact thresholds (e.g., 'Pistons win by 17 or more points' for -16.5 spread) and includes postponement/cancellation protocols ('market remains open until game completed; if canceled with no makeup, resolves 50-50'). Resolution source is explicitly 'official NBA box score as published on NBA.com.'Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi provides a single market with a logically incoherent resolution rule: 'If Detroit wins the Detroit at Washington professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Washington wins the Detroit at Washington professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a tautology where both possible outcomes (Detroit win OR Washington win) resolve to YES, leaving no outcome path to NO. The market lacks any tie-breaking rule, postponement protocol, or cancellation clause, and provides no resolution source.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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