TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers prediction markets for the winner of the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, a PGA Tour golf tournament. Polymarket offers individual binary markets for 99 listed players plus an 'Other' catchall, while Kalshi offers a single market that resolves Yes if any of 73 named players wins the tournament.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use identical resolution logic anchored to official PGA Tour results, with consistent handling of ties, unlisted winners, and deadline expiration.
Primary resolution logic:
PGA Tour official tournament results published at pgatour.comCore resolution logic:
- Resolution is determined by the official winner as declared by PGA Tour official tournament rules
- In case of a tie, the market resolves to the official PGA Tour-designated winner
- If multiple winners are announced, the player whose last name comes first alphabetically is selected
- If a listed player is eliminated from contention based on official tournament rules, that player's market resolves to No
- If an unlisted player wins, Polymarket resolves to Other and Kalshi resolves to No
- If no winner is announced by March 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to Other and Kalshi resolves to No
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Tie Resolution: If multiple players finish with identical scores, the official PGA Tour-designated winner is used. If PGA Tour designates multiple winners, the player whose last name comes first alphabetically wins.
- Unlisted Player Victory: If a player not listed on either platform wins the tournament, Polymarket resolves to Other and Kalshi resolves to No.
- Player Elimination: If a listed player is eliminated from contention per official tournament rules, their individual Polymarket market immediately resolves to No.
- Deadline Expiration: If no winner is officially announced by March 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to Other and Kalshi resolves to No.
- Player Roster Discrepancy: Polymarket lists 99 players (including placeholder entries like Player 0, Player 1, etc.) while Kalshi lists 73 named players. Both platforms cover the same core set of professional golfers, with Polymarket offering broader coverage including speculative slots.
Timing:
Resolution occurs immediately upon official PGA Tour announcement of the tournament winner. If no winner is announced by March 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET, markets resolve to Other (Polymarket) or No (Kalshi).Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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