TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Petrojet SC and ZED FC compete in an Egypt Egyptian Premier League match on April 9, 2024 at 1:00 PM ET. This market group covers multiple outcome dimensions: spread betting (1.5 and 2.5 goal margins for each team), total goals over/under (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, and 4.5 thresholds), and both-teams-to-score. All markets resolve based on the official final score within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution scopes. Polymarket offers spread and over/under markets that resolve based on specific goal-margin thresholds and combined-score thresholds, while Kalshi provides three mutually exclusive binary markets (Zed Win, Petrojet Win, Tie) that together cover all possible outcomes. Kalshi's markets are logically contradictory as written: all three cannot simultaneously resolve YES for the same match outcome.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-trade between Polymarket and Kalshi on this event. Polymarket's spread and total-goals markets are granular and resolvable; Kalshi's three binary markets are internally inconsistent (only one outcome can occur, yet all three are phrased as independent YES/NO resolutions). Clarify with Kalshi whether these are meant to be mutually exclusive (in which case exactly one resolves YES) or if the market structure is broken.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers granular spread markets (Petrojet -2.5, Petrojet -1.5, Zed -2.5, Zed -1.5) and over/under markets (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 combined goals) that each resolve independently based on final match score. All markets reference 'the official final score published on efa.com.eg' and cover only 90 minutes plus stoppage time.Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi provides three binary markets phrased as independent YES/NO resolutions: 'If Zed wins...then resolves to Yes', 'If Petrojet wins...then resolves to Yes', and 'If Tie wins...then resolves to Yes'. This structure is logically contradictory because exactly one outcome (Zed win, Petrojet win, or tie) will occur, yet all three markets are written as if each can independently resolve YES. No clarification is provided on whether these are mutually exclusive or if the market design is flawed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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