TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a men's college basketball game between Penn State Nittany Lions and Northwestern Wildcats scheduled for March 10, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET. Markets span moneyline (winner), point spread (multiple lines), and over/under totals (multiple thresholds) across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's moneyline market contains a logical contradiction: both Penn State winning and Northwestern winning are mapped to the same resolution outcome (Yes), making the market fundamentally unresolvable and unable to differentiate between the two mutually exclusive events.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi moneyline. It is unresolvable as currently written. Trade only Polymarket's moneyline, spreads, and totals, which all use mutually exclusive resolution outcomes and consistent logic across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Moneyline market maps both possible outcomes to Yes. If Penn State wins = Yes. If Northwestern wins = Yes. This creates a logical impossibility where the market cannot resolve to No under any game outcome. Key Quote: 'If Penn St. wins the Penn St. at Northwestern men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Northwestern wins the Penn St. at Northwestern men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Moneyline market uses mutually exclusive outcomes: Penn State win resolves to 'Penn State Nittany Lions', Northwestern win resolves to 'Northwestern Wildcats'. Spread and total markets use consistent binary logic (Northwestern or Penn State for spreads; Over or Under for totals). All outcomes are clearly differentiated. Key Quote: 'If the Penn State Nittany Lions win, the market will resolve to "Penn State Nittany Lions". If the Northwestern Wildcats win, the market will resolve to "Northwestern Wildcats".'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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