TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
On April 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET, the Pittsburgh Penguins will face the Tampa Bay Lightning in an NHL regular season game. Markets across Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing the moneyline winner and various total goals thresholds. The event resolves based on the final official NHL score, including overtime and shootout outcomes (with one goal added to the winning team's total in shootout scenarios).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use different threshold interpretations for over/under markets. Kalshi offers markets at 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, and 9.5 goals with standard 'over X.5' logic (resolves YES if total exceeds threshold), while Polymarket's O/U markets resolve YES when the combined total meets or exceeds a whole number (e.g., O/U 7.5 resolves Over at 8+ goals, O/U 4.5 resolves Over at 5+ goals), creating different settlement boundaries for the same game.Hero Tip:
If you trade the same goal threshold across platforms, verify the exact resolution rule: Kalshi uses strict decimal thresholds (over 7.5 means 8+), while Polymarket rounds to whole numbers (O/U 7.5 means 8+). For this specific matchup, both platforms align on the 8-goal threshold for their 7.5 markets, but diverge on lower thresholds—Kalshi's 4.5 market (5+ goals) differs from Polymarket's 4.5 market (also 5+ goals), so check each threshold carefully. The moneyline and spread markets are consistent across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi offers eight separate over/under markets at 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, and 9.5 goal thresholds. Each market resolves YES if the combined total exceeds the stated threshold (e.g., 'If over 7.5 total combined goals are scored... then the market resolves to Yes'). This creates granular coverage across a wide range of outcomes.Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers four over/under markets (O/U 7.5, O/U 6.5, O/U 5.5, O/U 4.5) plus a moneyline and spread market. Each O/U market resolves Over if the combined total meets or exceeds a whole number one higher than the stated threshold (e.g., 'This market will resolve to Over if the Penguins and Lightning combine to score 8 or more goals' for the O/U 7.5 market). Polymarket also includes a moneyline (Penguins vs. Lightning winner) and a spread market (Lightning -1.5).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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