TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for April 12 at 8:30PM ET: If the Pelicans win, the market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market resolves YES for ANY outcome (Minnesota wins OR New Orleans wins), making it logically incoherent and fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket correctly structures multiple distinct markets (Moneyline, Spreads, Totals, First Half variants) that each resolve to specific outcomes based on game result, score differential, or combined points.Hero Tip:
Do NOT trade the Kalshi market. It contains a logical contradiction: both possible outcomes (Minnesota win and New Orleans win) are listed as YES resolutions, meaning the market cannot fail to resolve YES regardless of the game result. This violates basic market design. All trading activity should be directed to Polymarket, which offers coherent, mutually exclusive resolution paths across 15 distinct markets.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi's single market states 'If Minnesota wins...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If New Orleans wins...then the market resolves to Yes', creating a logical impossibility where both mutually exclusive outcomes map to the same resolution. No NO resolution condition is defined. Key quote: 'If Minnesota wins the New Orleans at Minnesota professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If New Orleans wins the New Orleans at Minnesota professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Aligned with sound market design principles: Polymarket offers 15 distinct, logically coherent markets covering Moneyline (Pelicans vs. Timberwolves with mutually exclusive outcomes), multiple Spread variants (Timberwolves -10.5, -8.5, -7.5, -6.5, -5.5, -4.5 with clear win-by thresholds), Over/Under Totals (231.5 through 237.5 with specific point thresholds), First Half Moneyline, First Half Spreads, and First Half Over/Under. Each market has mutually exclusive outcomes. Key quote: 'If the Pelicans win, the market will resolve to Pelicans. If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to Timberwolves.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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