TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball game between the Oregon Ducks and Illinois Fighting Illini scheduled for March 3, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET in Champaign, Illinois. Markets span moneyline (winner), point spread (-18.5 Illinois), and total points (O/U 146.5) outcomes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's moneyline market contains a logical contradiction where both possible game outcomes (Oregon win and Illinois win) are mapped to the same resolution (Yes), making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket and all derivative markets (spread, totals) use standard mutually-exclusive logic.Hero Tip:
Avoid the Kalshi moneyline market entirely until Kalshi issues a clarification or amendment. The Polymarket moneyline, Polymarket spread (-18.5), and Polymarket total (O/U 146.5) all follow standard, consistent resolution logic and are safe to trade. All markets agree on: final score includes overtime, postponement keeps market open, cancellation with no makeup resolves 50-50, and NCAA.com is the authoritative source.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Moneyline market maps both Oregon win and Illinois win to Yes resolution. This is logically impossible since exactly one team will win. Quote: 'If Oregon wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Illinois wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' Spread and total markets are not present on Kalshi source data.Polymarket:
Moneyline market uses mutually exclusive outcomes: Oregon Ducks win resolves to 'Oregon Ducks', Illinois win resolves to 'Illinois Fighting Illini'. Spread market resolves to Illinois if they win by 19+ points, otherwise Oregon. Total market resolves Over if combined score is 147+, Under if less than 147. All three markets are logically consistent.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.15.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.