TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Oregon Ducks vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
kalshi
polymarket

Oregon Ducks vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

Volume:
$352,564

Illinois

 - Kalshi

Illinois - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 4, 2026

Closed: Mar 4, 12:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Illinois

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$111,396
N/A
N/A
$105,436
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -18.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,782
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Oregon

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$220,767
N/A
N/A
$187,559
Settled
No
polymarket

Oregon Ducks vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,712
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 146.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,908
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball game between the Oregon Ducks and Illinois Fighting Illini scheduled for March 3, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET in Champaign, Illinois. Markets span moneyline (winner), point spread (-18.5 Illinois), and total points (O/U 146.5) outcomes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's moneyline market contains a logical contradiction where both possible game outcomes (Oregon win and Illinois win) are mapped to the same resolution (Yes), making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket and all derivative markets (spread, totals) use standard mutually-exclusive logic.Hero tip: Avoid the Kalshi moneyline market entirely until Kalshi issues a clarification or amendment. The Polymarket moneyline, Polymarket spread (-18.5), and Polymarket total (O/U 146.5) all follow standard, consistent resolution logic and are safe to trade. All markets agree on: final score includes overtime, postponement keeps market open, cancellation with no makeup resolves 50-50, and NCAA.com is the authoritative source.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Moneyline market maps both Oregon win and Illinois win to Yes resolution. This is logically impossible since exactly one team will win. Quote: 'If Oregon wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Illinois wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' Spread and total markets are not present on Kalshi source data.
  • Polymarket: Moneyline market uses mutually exclusive outcomes: Oregon Ducks win resolves to 'Oregon Ducks', Illinois win resolves to 'Illinois Fighting Illini'. Spread market resolves to Illinois if they win by 19+ points, otherwise Oregon. Total market resolves Over if combined score is 147+, Under if less than 147. All three markets are logically consistent.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.