TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$244,265,276
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,349,697,137
578,254
Markets across
14,382
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,099
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball game between the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns scheduled for March 7, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET in Austin, Texas. Markets span moneyline (winner), point spreads, and over/under total points across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi uses granular point-differential thresholds (22 separate markets with 1.5-point increments) while Polymarket uses standard moneyline, spread, and total formats. Both platforms agree on final score determination and overtime inclusion, but market structure and resolution triggers differ fundamentally.Hero Tip:
Treat Kalshi markets as exotic derivatives and Polymarket markets as vanilla benchmarks. For arbitrage or hedging, map Kalshi thresholds to Polymarket spreads: Kalshi Texas >2.5 ≈ Polymarket Texas -6.5 spread (7+ points). Monitor for partial fills across platforms due to structural mismatch.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
22 binary markets, each tied to a specific point-differential threshold (1.5, 2.5, 4.5, 5.5, 7.5, 8.5, 10.5, 13.5, 16.5, 19.5, 22.5 points for both Oklahoma and Texas). Each market resolves Yes if the condition is met, No otherwise. Highly granular but creates logical redundancy and requires tracking multiple simultaneous outcomes.Polymarket:
Four distinct markets: (1) Moneyline winner (Oklahoma Sooners or Texas Longhorns), (2) Spread Texas -7.5 (resolves Texas if 8+ point win, Oklahoma otherwise), (3) Over/Under 154.5 total points (Over if 155+, Under if 154 or less), (4) Spread Texas -6.5 (resolves Texas if 7+ point win, Oklahoma otherwise). Standard sportsbook format with binary outcomes per market.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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