TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 24 at 9:30PM ET: If the Oilers win, the market will resolve to "Oilers". If the Utah win, the market will resolve to "Utah". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves on a binary YES/NO basis where both team outcomes trigger YES, while Polymarket resolves on a categorical basis where only one outcome (Oilers or Utah) can resolve per market. Additionally, Polymarket offers multiple derivative markets (Over/Under totals and spreads) that Kalshi does not cover.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi's binary market, understand that it resolves YES regardless of which team wins—this is fundamentally different from Polymarket's categorical resolution where only Oilers or Utah resolves. On Polymarket, also note that Over/Under and spread markets have independent thresholds; a game outcome that resolves the winner market does not automatically determine the totals or spread markets.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Uses a binary YES/NO structure where the market resolves YES if either UTA Mammoth wins OR EDM Oilers wins the March 24, 2026 game. This means the market cannot resolve NO under normal circumstances—both possible outcomes trigger YES. Key quote: 'If UTA Mammoth wins the Edmonton at Utah professional hockey game scheduled for Mar 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If EDM Oilers wins the Edmonton at Utah professional hockey game scheduled for Mar 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Outlier: Uses a categorical resolution structure with multiple independent markets. The primary winner market resolves to either 'Oilers' or 'Utah' (exactly one outcome per game), while separate Over/Under markets (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 thresholds) and a spread market (Utah -1.5) each have their own independent resolution logic. Key quote: 'If the Oilers win, the market will resolve to Oilers. If the Utah win, the market will resolve to Utah.' and 'This market will resolve to Over if the Oilers and Utah combine to score 5 or more goals in this game.'
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.